By Ian ‘Double Skulls’ Williams – taken from the Library of member.thenaf.net
Not so long ago I wrote a little article called “Putting the Boot In” that examined that tactics and probabilities of fouling under the LRB4. As many of you will be aware the fouling rules have been substantially rewritten in LRB5 – because of the imbalances that were demonstrated in that article. Fouling now is both less bloody and also a bit more risky.
For those of you unfamiliar with the new fouling rules the rules please go a read that section of the rules! Roughly speaking the main differences are that there is no longer an Eye or the ability to Argue the Call and that you are sent off if you roll doubles on either the armour or injury rolls. In addition dirty player is now only +1/+1 and a new skill, Sneaky Git, has been introduced that means you don’t get sent off if you fail to break armour. Finally the fouler themselves no longer contributes a +1 to the armour roll.
All this adds up to a fouling game that does not resemble the old version. Under the old rules moving the eye was a significant event within the game. The decision to foul or not was massively influenced by your opponent’s ability to “foul back”.
Now fouling is much more about the specific tactical situation you are in – both in terms of the odds of the foul itself and in the position within the drive and game overall.
So what are you be trying to achieve when you foul? Likelihood is it’s one of the following three goals:
Tactical Fouls: Sometimes you are looking to stun a prone opponent who for some reason is in a dangerous position should they be able to get up. Normally this is because they are the only player who can score, stop you scoring, or are able to blitz the ball carrier. In general, you don’t care if you get sent off and the main measurement of success is breaking armour. A KO or a casualty is a pleasant bonus.
Key Players: Most teams have key players. War Dancers or Big Guys are classic examples, but it could be that super thrower or a one turn wonder. Removing your opponent’s key player(s) from the game can give you a huge advantage. Being sent off can be considered a fair trade as long as you get them off the pitch. Normally you are trying to get rid of key players early on, so a knock out doesn’t always help. Sometimes there are considerations beyond the current game. Killing a key player now might give you an advantage in the final…
Numbers: Sometimes you are fouling just to try and gain an advantage in numbers. If so, you will be looking for KOs and casualties. Being sent off without getting your opponent off the pitch as well can be a disaster as you will have given the advantage away. This is a particular favourite for teams with cheap linemen as they can afford larger squads to absorb a couple of red cards. Remember, if you are going to foul, it always makes sense to target the most valuable opponent you can with the least important of your own players.
So you’ve worked out who you are going to foul and why. What are your chances of success?
Fouling Odds
One thing to bear in mind is that you are more likely to get sent off if you do break armour. This is because you have two chances to get sent off – the armour roll and the injury roll. So if you don’t break armour you are less likely to get sent off.
You are also slightly more likely to get sent off if you do get a casualty than any other result since 1/3 of casualties result in a sending off result (5,5 & 6,6) which is a higher proportion than either for KOs (4,4 only) or Stuns.
The table below shows the effect of different skills on the target Av you need to reach to have a better chance of getting your opponent off the pitch (i.e. KO’d or Cas) than being sent off yourself.
| No Skills | Dirty Player | Sneaky Git | Dirty Player & Sneaky Git | |
| No Skills | 5 | 7 | 8 | always |
| Stunty | 7 | 8 | always | always |
| Thick Skull | never | 6 | 4* | 9 |
So if you are fouling a human lineman (Av8) with 3 assists – and the fouler doesn’t have any skills then you are about as likely to get sent off as you are to remove them from the pitch. If the fouler has got Dirty Player then you need one assist to “break even” and if you’ve got sneaky git you don’t need any!
Now obviously getting your opponent off the pitch is only half the battle. First of all players are not of equal value to the game. Generally a war dancer is more useful than a hobgoblin – so you may be willing to trade a couple of hobgoblins just to get rid of that pesky war dancer!
This leads straight another factor – how big is your bench compared to theirs? If your opponent has no reserves and you’ve got plenty you may be willing to trade at uneven odds as any losses hurt them much more than you.
This is turn leads to another factor – the timing within the game. If its late in the second half then the relative sizes of benches may well be irrelevant. However the later you are in the game the more likely it is that KOs are seen as being just as valuable as casualties.
Finally, and probably the biggest issue, is the tactical situation. Getting a player sent off might cause irreparable damage to the drive. You may be left without vital assists or tackle zones. Or it might be late in the drive and the score is unstoppable from either side – in which case the strategic choices are more important than the tactical ones.
Complete Statistics
For the number crunchers amongst you here are the stats for various combinations of skills. In each instance 1,000,000 fouls were made and the outcomes recorded.
Av = Target Av of victim
None = No effect
Stun = Victim stunned
KO = Victim knocked out
Cas = Victim is a casualty
SO- None = Fouler is sent off without breaking armour
Sent Off = overall chance of being sent off
Off Pitch = ratio of odds for the victim to be knocked out or a casualty against the fouler to be sent off.
Return = As for Off pitch, but Knock outs only count half as much as casualties.
| Skills: No Skills | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.583 | 0.251 | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 1.365 | 0.955 |
| 2 | 0.028 | 0.567 | 0.243 | 0.162 | 0.028 | 0.305 | 1.326 | 0.928 |
| 3 | 0.083 | 0.535 | 0.229 | 0.153 | 0.028 | 0.296 | 1.290 | 0.904 |
| 4 | 0.167 | 0.486 | 0.208 | 0.139 | 0.056 | 0.287 | 1.209 | 0.847 |
| 5 | 0.278 | 0.422 | 0.180 | 0.120 | 0.055 | 0.269 | 1.118 | 0.782 |
| 6 | 0.416 | 0.340 | 0.146 | 0.097 | 0.084 | 0.251 | 0.970 | 0.679 |
| 7 | 0.583 | 0.243 | 0.104 | 0.070 | 0.083 | 0.222 | 0.783 | 0.548 |
| 8 | 0.722 | 0.162 | 0.070 | 0.046 | 0.112 | 0.205 | 0.567 | 0.397 |
| 9 | 0.833 | 0.097 | 0.042 | 0.028 | 0.111 | 0.186 | 0.374 | 0.263 |
| 10 | 0.917 | 0.048 | 0.021 | 0.014 | 0.139 | 0.176 | 0.198 | 0.139 |
| Skills: Dirty Player | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.417 | 0.306 | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 1.913 | 1.411 |
| 2 | 0.000 | 0.421 | 0.305 | 0.274 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 1.900 | 1.399 |
| 3 | 0.028 | 0.415 | 0.293 | 0.264 | 0.028 | 0.306 | 1.825 | 1.345 |
| 4 | 0.084 | 0.395 | 0.275 | 0.246 | 0.028 | 0.296 | 1.759 | 1.294 |
| 5 | 0.167 | 0.366 | 0.248 | 0.219 | 0.056 | 0.287 | 1.628 | 1.196 |
| 6 | 0.278 | 0.324 | 0.213 | 0.186 | 0.056 | 0.269 | 1.481 | 1.085 |
| 7 | 0.416 | 0.272 | 0.168 | 0.144 | 0.083 | 0.250 | 1.248 | 0.911 |
| 8 | 0.583 | 0.197 | 0.120 | 0.100 | 0.084 | 0.223 | 0.988 | 0.719 |
| 9 | 0.722 | 0.134 | 0.079 | 0.065 | 0.111 | 0.204 | 0.704 | 0.511 |
| 10 | 0.833 | 0.083 | 0.046 | 0.037 | 0.111 | 0.185 | 0.451 | 0.325 |
| Skills: Sneaky Git | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.584 | 0.250 | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 1.362 | 0.953 |
| 2 | 0.028 | 0.567 | 0.243 | 0.162 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 1.459 | 1.021 |
| 3 | 0.082 | 0.534 | 0.229 | 0.154 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 1.430 | 1.002 |
| 4 | 0.167 | 0.485 | 0.209 | 0.139 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 1.502 | 1.051 |
| 5 | 0.278 | 0.421 | 0.181 | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 1.415 | 0.991 |
| 6 | 0.416 | 0.340 | 0.146 | 0.098 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 1.459 | 1.022 |
| 7 | 0.583 | 0.243 | 0.104 | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 1.253 | 0.878 |
| 8 | 0.723 | 0.162 | 0.069 | 0.046 | 0.000 | 0.092 | 1.251 | 0.875 |
| 9 | 0.834 | 0.097 | 0.042 | 0.028 | 0.000 | 0.074 | 0.940 | 0.659 |
| 10 | 0.917 | 0.049 | 0.021 | 0.014 | 0.000 | 0.037 | 0.937 | 0.655 |
| Skills: Dirty Player, Sneaky Git | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.417 | 0.305 | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 1.905 | 1.407 |
| 2 | 0.000 | 0.421 | 0.304 | 0.275 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 1.897 | 1.399 |
| 3 | 0.028 | 0.415 | 0.293 | 0.264 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 2.002 | 1.474 |
| 4 | 0.084 | 0.395 | 0.276 | 0.246 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 1.941 | 1.427 |
| 5 | 0.166 | 0.365 | 0.249 | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 2.028 | 1.489 |
| 6 | 0.278 | 0.324 | 0.213 | 0.185 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 1.866 | 1.367 |
| 7 | 0.417 | 0.270 | 0.170 | 0.143 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 1.881 | 1.371 |
| 8 | 0.583 | 0.197 | 0.120 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 1.585 | 1.154 |
| 9 | 0.722 | 0.134 | 0.079 | 0.065 | 0.000 | 0.093 | 1.545 | 1.120 |
| 10 | 0.834 | 0.083 | 0.046 | 0.037 | 0.000 | 0.074 | 1.126 | 0.813 |
| Skills: Stunty | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.416 | 0.306 | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 1.911 | 1.411 |
| 2 | 0.028 | 0.405 | 0.297 | 0.270 | 0.028 | 0.305 | 1.857 | 1.371 |
| 3 | 0.083 | 0.382 | 0.280 | 0.255 | 0.028 | 0.297 | 1.805 | 1.333 |
| 4 | 0.166 | 0.347 | 0.254 | 0.232 | 0.056 | 0.287 | 1.695 | 1.251 |
| 5 | 0.277 | 0.302 | 0.221 | 0.200 | 0.056 | 0.269 | 1.564 | 1.153 |
| 6 | 0.416 | 0.243 | 0.178 | 0.162 | 0.084 | 0.251 | 1.359 | 1.003 |
| 7 | 0.584 | 0.173 | 0.127 | 0.115 | 0.083 | 0.222 | 1.093 | 0.806 |
| 8 | 0.722 | 0.116 | 0.085 | 0.078 | 0.111 | 0.204 | 0.796 | 0.588 |
| 9 | 0.833 | 0.070 | 0.051 | 0.046 | 0.111 | 0.185 | 0.527 | 0.389 |
| 10 | 0.917 | 0.035 | 0.026 | 0.023 | 0.139 | 0.176 | 0.276 | 0.204 |
| Skills: Dirty Player, Stunty | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.306 | 0.416 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 2.361 | 1.860 |
| 2 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 0.307 | 0.413 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 2.360 | 1.857 |
| 3 | 0.028 | 0.277 | 0.297 | 0.398 | 0.028 | 0.306 | 2.271 | 1.786 |
| 4 | 0.084 | 0.266 | 0.280 | 0.370 | 0.028 | 0.297 | 2.192 | 1.720 |
| 5 | 0.167 | 0.248 | 0.254 | 0.332 | 0.056 | 0.287 | 2.040 | 1.598 |
| 6 | 0.278 | 0.220 | 0.220 | 0.282 | 0.056 | 0.269 | 1.864 | 1.455 |
| 7 | 0.417 | 0.185 | 0.178 | 0.220 | 0.083 | 0.250 | 1.591 | 1.235 |
| 8 | 0.583 | 0.135 | 0.127 | 0.154 | 0.083 | 0.222 | 1.268 | 0.981 |
| 9 | 0.722 | 0.093 | 0.085 | 0.100 | 0.111 | 0.203 | 0.911 | 0.702 |
| 10 | 0.834 | 0.058 | 0.051 | 0.058 | 0.111 | 0.185 | 0.587 | 0.450 |
| Skills: Sneaky Git, Stunty | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.417 | 0.305 | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 1.907 | 1.408 |
| 2 | 0.028 | 0.405 | 0.297 | 0.270 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 2.042 | 1.507 |
| 3 | 0.083 | 0.382 | 0.281 | 0.254 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 1.987 | 1.465 |
| 4 | 0.167 | 0.347 | 0.255 | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 2.098 | 1.548 |
| 5 | 0.278 | 0.301 | 0.220 | 0.201 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 1.979 | 1.461 |
| 6 | 0.416 | 0.243 | 0.178 | 0.162 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 2.045 | 1.509 |
| 7 | 0.583 | 0.174 | 0.127 | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 1.743 | 1.286 |
| 8 | 0.722 | 0.116 | 0.085 | 0.077 | 0.000 | 0.093 | 1.743 | 1.287 |
| 9 | 0.833 | 0.070 | 0.051 | 0.046 | 0.000 | 0.074 | 1.307 | 0.964 |
| 10 | 0.916 | 0.035 | 0.026 | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.037 | 1.316 | 0.972 |
| Skills: Dirty Player, Sneaky Git, Stunty | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.305 | 0.417 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 2.366 | 1.867 |
| 2 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 0.306 | 0.412 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 2.355 | 1.853 |
| 3 | 0.028 | 0.277 | 0.297 | 0.398 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 2.496 | 1.962 |
| 4 | 0.084 | 0.266 | 0.280 | 0.370 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 2.421 | 1.900 |
| 5 | 0.167 | 0.247 | 0.255 | 0.332 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 2.536 | 1.984 |
| 6 | 0.278 | 0.220 | 0.220 | 0.282 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 2.351 | 1.835 |
| 7 | 0.416 | 0.185 | 0.179 | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 2.382 | 1.848 |
| 8 | 0.582 | 0.136 | 0.128 | 0.154 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 2.029 | 1.570 |
| 9 | 0.722 | 0.092 | 0.085 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.092 | 2.006 | 1.544 |
| 10 | 0.833 | 0.058 | 0.051 | 0.058 | 0.000 | 0.074 | 1.466 | 1.123 |
| Skills: Thick Skull | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.723 | 0.111 | 0.166 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 0.907 | 0.726 |
| 2 | 0.028 | 0.702 | 0.108 | 0.162 | 0.028 | 0.306 | 0.883 | 0.707 |
| 3 | 0.084 | 0.662 | 0.101 | 0.153 | 0.028 | 0.296 | 0.859 | 0.688 |
| 4 | 0.166 | 0.602 | 0.093 | 0.139 | 0.056 | 0.288 | 0.806 | 0.644 |
| 5 | 0.278 | 0.521 | 0.080 | 0.120 | 0.056 | 0.269 | 0.746 | 0.597 |
| 6 | 0.418 | 0.421 | 0.065 | 0.097 | 0.083 | 0.250 | 0.647 | 0.517 |
| 7 | 0.584 | 0.301 | 0.046 | 0.069 | 0.083 | 0.222 | 0.520 | 0.416 |
| 8 | 0.722 | 0.201 | 0.031 | 0.046 | 0.111 | 0.203 | 0.379 | 0.303 |
| 9 | 0.833 | 0.120 | 0.019 | 0.028 | 0.112 | 0.186 | 0.251 | 0.200 |
| 10 | 0.917 | 0.060 | 0.009 | 0.014 | 0.139 | 0.176 | 0.131 | 0.105 |
| Skills: Dirty Player, Thick Skull | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.583 | 0.139 | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 1.366 | 1.138 |
| 2 | 0.000 | 0.588 | 0.138 | 0.274 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 1.351 | 1.125 |
| 3 | 0.028 | 0.575 | 0.134 | 0.263 | 0.028 | 0.305 | 1.300 | 1.081 |
| 4 | 0.083 | 0.547 | 0.125 | 0.245 | 0.028 | 0.296 | 1.251 | 1.040 |
| 5 | 0.167 | 0.502 | 0.112 | 0.220 | 0.056 | 0.287 | 1.156 | 0.960 |
| 6 | 0.279 | 0.440 | 0.096 | 0.185 | 0.056 | 0.268 | 1.050 | 0.870 |
| 7 | 0.417 | 0.363 | 0.076 | 0.143 | 0.083 | 0.250 | 0.878 | 0.725 |
| 8 | 0.583 | 0.262 | 0.054 | 0.100 | 0.083 | 0.222 | 0.694 | 0.572 |
| 9 | 0.723 | 0.177 | 0.036 | 0.065 | 0.111 | 0.204 | 0.491 | 0.404 |
| 10 | 0.834 | 0.108 | 0.021 | 0.037 | 0.111 | 0.185 | 0.313 | 0.257 |
| Skills: Sneaky Git, Thick Skull | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.722 | 0.111 | 0.166 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 0.909 | 0.727 |
| 2 | 0.028 | 0.702 | 0.108 | 0.163 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.972 | 0.778 |
| 3 | 0.083 | 0.663 | 0.102 | 0.153 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.946 | 0.757 |
| 4 | 0.167 | 0.602 | 0.093 | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 1.000 | 0.799 |
| 5 | 0.278 | 0.522 | 0.080 | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.942 | 0.753 |
| 6 | 0.416 | 0.422 | 0.065 | 0.097 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 0.969 | 0.775 |
| 7 | 0.584 | 0.300 | 0.046 | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 0.835 | 0.668 |
| 8 | 0.723 | 0.201 | 0.031 | 0.046 | 0.000 | 0.093 | 0.829 | 0.662 |
| 9 | 0.833 | 0.121 | 0.018 | 0.028 | 0.000 | 0.074 | 0.622 | 0.499 |
| 10 | 0.916 | 0.060 | 0.009 | 0.014 | 0.000 | 0.037 | 0.622 | 0.497 |
| Skills: Dirty Player, Sneaky Git, Thick Skull | ||||||||
| Av | None | Stun | KO | Cas | SO- None | Sent Off | Off Pitch | Return |
| 1 | 0.000 | 0.583 | 0.140 | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 1.362 | 1.134 |
| 2 | 0.000 | 0.587 | 0.138 | 0.275 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 1.349 | 1.123 |
| 3 | 0.028 | 0.575 | 0.134 | 0.263 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 1.428 | 1.187 |
| 4 | 0.083 | 0.546 | 0.126 | 0.245 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 1.378 | 1.144 |
| 5 | 0.167 | 0.501 | 0.113 | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 1.434 | 1.190 |
| 6 | 0.277 | 0.441 | 0.097 | 0.185 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 1.325 | 1.097 |
| 7 | 0.416 | 0.364 | 0.076 | 0.143 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 1.320 | 1.091 |
| 8 | 0.584 | 0.262 | 0.054 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 1.110 | 0.916 |
| 9 | 0.722 | 0.177 | 0.036 | 0.065 | 0.000 | 0.092 | 1.087 | 0.894 |
| 10 | 0.833 | 0.108 | 0.021 | 0.037 | 0.000 | 0.074 | 0.790 | 0.647 |